The Dearth of Superlatitives

We now take a break from our investigation of the Singularity to discuss an approaching problem that gets very little attention.

The problem is Moore's law, or one of its many variations. For instance, consider computer performance. It doubles every 1.5 years. Or hard drive volume, it increases by 1000 times every 5 years. So right now we have can buy hard drives in the Tera-Byte(Tb) range, but 5 years ago, it was the top of the line was Giga-bytes (Gb), and 10 years ago, we were still in the Mega-byte range(Mb).

The system of SI units gives us prefixes for progressive powers of 1000. That means in 5 years, (baring truly major war, or disaster) we will have Peta-bytes (Pb) hard drives, then in 2018, Exa-byte(Eb), then 2023, Zetta-byte (Zb) and by 2028 Yotta-bytes (Yb). And then.... nothing.

The trouble is that math is a language and the venerable SI system of units, (aka metric), does not have any more pre-fixes, or words if you will, for larger numbers.

Borrowing from Wikipedia, we see that the both in terms of large and small, we are limited.

1000m	10n	Prefix	Symbol	Since[1]	Short scale	Long scale	Decimal
10008	1024	yotta-	Y	1991	Septillion	Quadrillion	1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
10007	1021	zetta-	Z	1991	Sextillion	Trilliard	1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
10006	1018	exa-	E	1975	Quintillion	Trillion	1 000 000 000 000 000 000
10005	1015	peta-	P	1975	Quadrillion	Billiard	1 000 000 000 000 000
10004	1012	tera-	T	1960	Trillion	Billion	1 000 000 000 000
10003	109	giga-	G	1960	Billion	Milliard	1 000 000 000
10002	106	mega-	M	1960	Million		1 000 000
10001	103	kilo-	k	1795	Thousand		1 000
10002/3	102	hecto-	h	1795	Hundred		100
10001/3	101	deca-	da	1795	Ten		10
10000	100	(none)	(none)	NA	One		1
1000−1/3	10−1	deci-	d	1795	Tenth		0.1
1000−2/3	10−2	centi-	c	1795	Hundredth		0.01
1000−1	10−3	milli-	m	1795	Thousandth		0.001
1000−2	10−6	micro-	µ	1960[2]	Millionth		0.000 001
1000−3	10−9	nano-	n	1960	Billionth	Milliardth	0.000 000 001
1000−4	10−12	pico-	p	1960	Trillionth	Billionth	0.000 000 000 001
1000−5	10−15	femto-	f	1964	Quadrillionth	Billiardth	0.000 000 000 000 001
1000−6	10−18	atto-	a	1964	Quintillionth	Trillionth	0.000 000 000 000 000 001
1000−7	10−21	zepto-	z	1991	Sextillionth	Trilliardth	0.000 000 000 000 000 000 001
1000−8	10−24	yocto-	y	1991	Septillionth	Quadrillionth	0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001

One suggestion would use all the upper and lower case numbers in the English alphabet, but this becomes problematic as the units these prefixes attach to are also English letters. That would lead to confusion (the first sin of any language). For instance, one proposed extension uses all of the English alphabet, starting with xona-, weka-, and vunda- for progressively higher powers of one thousand. So if we have VA, is that Vunda Amperes? or Volts times Amperes? Ambiguity is unacceptable.

Other approaches might be suggested by the mathematics of very large numbers. But this still struggles with the fact that learning more and more names for larger numbers is just putting the problem off. If you disagree, say 10^10000000000 is "ten tremilliamilliamilliatrecenttretriginmilliamilliatrecenttretriginmilliatrecentdotrigintillion" ten times fast.

Another solution would be to designate a new unit, like the Tera-Byte, as the BBoT, for lack of a better name. That would run out slower, lasting 4*5*8 = 160 years. That is good, but not perminent. Further, we would have to designate a new unit for every unit used.

If our growth is exponential, then if we should want a system that will scale in the same way. We have that for Earthquakes, for instance. It is called the Richter scale. Similar scales are used in apparent magnitude for astronomy and the decibel scale for sound. These all use base-10 logarithms, so that each time you increase by 1, the magnitude increases by 10 times. For instance, 5.4 on the richter scale is 10 times what 4.4 is. This system would last virtually forever. But implemenation is everything... and that is going to require more work.

Suggestions?

The Purpose of the Singularity part 3: Scientific Revolutions

As I suggested in my last post, it has been wondered before why the scientific revolution did not happen in other times and places. Lovers of multiculturalism have, for instance, condemned Thomas Kuhn's Structure of Scientific Revolutions for being Eurocentric, or focused on Western Civilization. The fact is most of what we use in science is Western, with the primary exception being Arabic Sciences, as noted in words like 'algebra' or 'algorithm' or 'azimuth'. And while other civilizations have had tremendous accomplishments, very little of their efforts were a part of the scientific revolution. That is not to suggest they were unintelligent or unaccomplished. Rather we should take it as a warning just how easily we can lose what they lost as well.

Vernor Vinge has an excellent article discussing What If the Singularity Never Happens? He gives us 3 scenarios.

First Scenario - we destroy ourselves - Mutual Assured Destruction - the Suicide of Civilization.

That is why I have stated in posts long gone by that the next necessary step in progress towards the Singularity (or as I love to refer to it, "the Rapture of the Nerds") is moral and spiritual. We are at a point where we are technologically capable of destroying, if not the human race, then most certainly human civilization. Einstein is quoted as having said, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

As our weapons become more and more powerful, this is a greater and greater worry.


Second Possibility, (Golden Age) we actually make it. We clean up our act, repent of our sins, and are ready for the glories the Lord has in mind.

But this picture is a little too simplistic and naively evolutionary. It is a nice idea, but it misses a lot of important complexity.


The third scenario (Wheel of Time) is the the one that best reflects history, though I have great faith and hopes that at least part of the human race will enter the Golden Age scenario this time around. In actual fact, we see that different civilizations have gained and lost scientific understanding through out history.

For instance, for 1400 year, China was more technologically advanced than Europe (Jospeh Needham wrote Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China--Or Did It? - here is a revised version)

Likewise, India was far ahead of the West for a long time. Some thoughts on the Indian half of Needham question by Narasimha explores this puzzle. Here, other scholars address this question, but they don't really come to an answer. Some of their solutions are cultural, but Europe had cultural problems too, like how it dealt with Galileo. Some of the blame is due to invasions and war. But Europe had plenty of that too.

The Arabs had a tremendous opportunity too and flourished for a time, but then lost it all. They are mainly remembered for the few things they introduced into Europe, such as Hindu (so called Arabic) numbers. Here is one slightly bitter record of Islamic scientific history. The main conclusion reached was that there was too little interest and too much insistence on orthodoxy.

Those were similar to the charges against the Indians, and could just as easily be used to accuse us.

Without bringing in theology, I can not answer why this is. But I can say that we can lose what we have just as easily as the Arabs, the Indians, the Chinese, or any other great civilization. It has come and it has gone. We should not take the Scientific Revolution for granted.

The Purpose of the Singularity part 2: The Key of the Restoration of all things

The Singularity is a period of run-away technological advances. Some people peg it to the creation of a computerized Artificial Intelligence like our own, only computerized, called strong AI. While I am bearish on strong AI, weak AI (like computer programs that are only good at one problem, chess, for instance) will be a significant advance. Ultimately, the reasons for the Singularity happening must be kept in mind, because opportunities for singularity are not inevitable.

Great knowledge has been lost more times in history than we could count. We are only now getting an idea of how the Egyptian pyramids how were built. There are many cases of superior civil engineering technology - Rome and its neighbors, Meso-America, India, China, and so on. We still don't fully understand how Damascus steel was created. Attainments in Medicine have at times been very great, as have attainments in mathematics and astronomy. If we take the Book of Enoch at its word, this is the least of it.

We say, correctly, that the technological advances we are having uniquely in our day and age, are a result of the Gospel being restored. That is true, but we need to be more specific. I wonder if we can say, that it is because of the key of the restoration of all things.

A key consists of power from God to accomplish something. And the truth is scientific advances are revelations who come to those who are prepared scientifically. I could quote Brigham extensively on this, but not today.

The interesting thing about this, is that it was previously held by both Noah (Elias/Gabriel) and Peter, James and John. If I am right then, we could have had the technological marvels we have now, either right after the Flood, or in the days of Rome, except that the Church apostatized. I consider that fascinating, because smarter men than myself have often wondered why the scientific revolution happened when it did, and not earlier. It was certainly not for any lack of intelligence.

What is the purpose of the key of the restoration of all things? Nothing less than building up the kingdom of God. And when men and women have abandoned God, He has withheld the enlightenments they might have otherwise received. Do technological levels directly correlate with righteousness and apostasy? No, not at all, but it will follow it like an errent shadow, with delayed but inexorable effect. And opportunities once lost, may not return for a very long time.

What do the scriptures and prophets tell us about this?

First, there is the well-known and repeated prophecy that someday, we should be as far ahead of the world in Science as we are now in Religion. This prophecy in particular suggests to me that the Singularity will be a LDS phenomena and not the world at large.

Other prophecies closely corrolate the information explosion with the blessings of the Millenium itself.

A time to come when nothing shall be withheld....

or

...for it is necessary in the ushering in of the dispensation of the fulness of times, which dispensation is now beginning to usher in, that a whole and complete and perfect union, and welding together of dispensations, and keys, and powers, and glories should take place, and be revealed from the days of Adam even to the present time. And not only this, but those things which never have been revealed from the foundation of the world, but have been kept hid from the wise and prudent, shall be revealed unto babes and sucklings in this, the dispensation of the fulness of times.

And for what purpose is all of this? It is to build up Zion - that it might be perfect in knowledge, both secular and spiritual. Both kinds of knowledge are necessary.

God does not violate the agency he has given to man; wherefore let this be in the mouth of every Saint, "The Lord shall have perfect dominion in my heart and affections;" then he will begin to reign in the midst of the people; but he cannot do so now. When we have faith to understand that he must dictate, and that we must be perfectly submissive to him, then we shall begin to rapidly collect the intelligence that is bestowed upon the nations, for all this intelligence belongs to Zion. All the knowledge, wisdom, power, and glory that have been bestowed upon the nations of the earth, from the days of Adam till now, must be gathered home to Zion. The wicked will become more and more weak and ignorant as they increase in wickedness. See the trifling, childish foolishness now among the nations of the earth.

Journal of Discourses Vol. 8, p. 279

And what does that mean for us? It means that God expects us to get to work and learn. He has given us minds and opportunities and if we do not, we will be found wanting. God can not bless us if we do not make use of the gift He has given.

Were I residing in a gathering-place where I knew I could remain for two years, and had fifty thousand dollars to spare, I would expend it in the best improvements I could, and labour to improve until the last day of my remaining. The Lord is gathering his people, and this is a city for the Saints. A great many here are satisfied with a log hut. Some act as though they expected to be driven, and others say—"We will soon go back to the centre Stake of Zion, and this house will answer my purpose till then." Let every mechanic and every scientific man of all classes and occupations, and every woman, improve to the best of their ability, faithfully living their religion, and we shall be none too well qualified to build up Zion when that time arrives. I never saw a stone-mason who thoroughly understood his trade. We have not a quarryman who fully understands getting out rock for the Temple walls. Then how, amid such ignorance, are you going to properly lay the foundation of the New Jerusalem—the Zion of our God? What do you know about building the great Temple that is yet to be built, upon which the glory of God will rest by day and by night? Where is the man that knows how to lay the first rock in that Temple, or to get out the first stick of timber for it? Where is the woman that knows how to make a single part of its interior decorations? That knowledge is not now here; and unless you wisely improve upon your privileges day by day, you will not be prepared, when called upon, to engage to the best advantage in building up Zion.

No nation possesses any wisdom but what it has received from the same God that we worship. He is the best mechanic and the most scientific personage that we have any knowledge of. There is not a principle in astronomy, known by men of science, but what has been revealed from heaven. All true knowledge among men, in relation to agriculture, the arts, science, commerce, and every avocation in life, has been given from our Father in heaven to his children, whether they acknowledge and obey him or not.

Journal of Discourses Vol. 8, p. 278-279

Elsewhere Brigham said,

It is mortifying that the children of this world should know more about these things than the children of light. We know more about the kingdom of God. Take these young men, sixteen or eighteen years old, or these old men, or some who have just come into the Church, and let them go into the world, and, with regard to the kingdom of God, they can teach kings and queens, statesmen and philosophers, for they are ignorant of these things, but in things pertaining to this life the lack of knowledge manifested by us as a people is disgraceful. Your knowledge should be as much more than that of the children of the world, with regard to the things of the world, as it is with regard to the things of the kingdom of God. JD 10:293

We must become ready for what the Lord has planned, spiritually and intellectually.

Put forth your ability to learn as fast as you can, and gather all the strength of mind and principle of faith you possibly can, and then distribute your knowledge to the people. Give them virtue, knowledge, principle, truth, godliness. The Lord is gathering those principles home to Zion from among the wicked nations, and is leaving them in darkness. What a pity it would be for the Lord to gather out all the good, and we be found unworthy of it. We shall be worthy of it, if we live for it; and may the Lord help us so to do! JD 8:146

It is worth repeating - if we do not become ready, it can be given to other nations, without any of the holy prophecies being invalidated in the least.

I have no doubt with regard to the good work of the Lord, referred to by those who have spoken, and it will continue among the nations of the earth. The Lord will bring out the results to his own honour and glory; but are we ready?

The Lord has bestowed great knowledge and wisdom upon the inhabitants of the earth—much truth and knowledge in the arts and sciences. Those nations that deny their God and Saviour will have those principles of intelligence taken from them. Are the Latter-day Saints prepared to receive them, enjoy them, or will those principles have to go to some other kingdom? There is great wisdom in the world; their knowledge in mechanism and the exact sciences is very great. This wisdom will be taken from the wicked. Who will receive it? Is there a people upon the earth prepared to receive this knowledge and this wisdom? There should be. Is it reasonable to suppose that the wisdom God has bestowed upon the nations of the earth should continue upon it? Or should it be taken from the inhabitants of the earth and carried back from whence it came? My faith and my desire are that there should be a people upon the earth prepared to receive this wisdom. It should not be so forfeited as to be taken from the earth, for I question whether it would return again. There should be a people prepared to improve upon their knowledge and wisdom, for all knowledge and wisdom come from God. All true intelligence is the gift of God. He is the true fountain of all knowledge and wisdom. JD 8, p. 319

The Brethren have spoken long and hard about education and reading. I could just as easily quote Pres. Monson as Brother Brigham. We must become ready, if we expect a temporal salvation.

The Purpose of the Singularity part 1

We can not talk comprehensively about technology, and the tremendous change in technology that the Singularity will bring, without talking about God, and His purposes.

This is not only true from a theological perspective, but also bluntly from a scientific perspective. It has long been pondered why the scientific revolution did not happen in so many other periods of history. The Egyptians were plenty smart, and I don't just mean the pyramids. The Greeks had a level of mathematical and scientific understanding that we only matched in the last hundred years. The Romans were eminently capable... why did it not happen for them?

And why has it happened to us?

I am going to explore the implications this perspective has both spiritually, and technologically in this set of posts.(it was originally going to be one post, but it ballooned fantastically)

1. Scientific Revolution: Why not earlier? (technologically reason)
2. Scientific Revolution: Why not earlier? (theological reason)
3. For what purpose is the Scientific Revolution?
4. What does this imply about the Nature of the Singularity and future of the Scientific Revolution?
5. What do the Scriptures have to say about the Singularity?

Exciting times we live in! But just to get you started, I will quote Brigham Young:

I have no doubt with regard to the good work of the Lord, referred to by those who have spoken, and it will continue among the nations of the earth. The Lord will bring out the results to his own honour and glory; but are we ready?
The Lord has bestowed great knowledge and wisdom upon the inhabitants of the earth—much truth and knowledge in the arts and sciences. Those nations that deny their God and Saviour will have those principles of intelligence taken from them. Are the Latter-day Saints prepared to receive them, enjoy them, or will those principles have to go to some other kingdom? There is great wisdom in the world; their knowledge in mechanism and the exact sciences is very great. This wisdom will be taken from the wicked. Who will receive it? Is there a people upon the earth prepared to receive this knowledge and this wisdom? There should be. Is it reasonable to suppose that the wisdom God has bestowed upon the nations of the earth should continue upon it? Or should it be taken from the inhabitants of the earth and carried back from whence it came? My faith and my desire are that there should be a people upon the earth prepared to receive this wisdom. It should not be so forfeited as to be taken from the earth, for I question whether it would return again. There should be a people prepared to improve upon their knowledge and wisdom, for all knowledge and wisdom come from God. All true intelligence is the gift of God. He is the true fountain of all knowledge and wisdom.

Journal of Discourses Vol. 8, p. 319

We have our work cut out for us.

What the Future will bring

Any time a futurist makes a prediction about what will happen, you know he (she) is just asking for trouble. Otherwise, we should have had flying cars a while ago, but curiously, no internet. We would have had the cure for all disease, and not a obesity epidemic.

So, how can we predict correctly? I am going to do so, but working with a number of simple axioms.

First: Civilization's level is defined by the logarithm of data available. There is a significant difference between literate and illiterate tribes. Furthermore, once you can print books instead of longhand copy, and once you have books worth copying, you have a higher more potent civilization. Computers, and particularly the Internet will result in changes we do not yet even see. They are too young; infant technologies.

Prediction:

• Information availability/transfer speeds will increase exponentally.
• Moore's Law will continue to hold. Quantum computing likely.
• Copyright and patent, as well as other forms of "intellectual property" as we know them, will die/transform to accomodate this increase in speed. It may well die completely.

Second: We are reaching a tipping point where we have more knowledge that good sense. We have the power to really destroy ourselves, but do have have the wisdom to save ourselves? The next step in human evolution will be the kind of people we are.

I don't for a moment mean how many arms we have, or wings, or claws. I mean something more internal. It is a question of what do we act like, given greater freedom, or when we think no one is looking.

Prediction:

• Don't expect for a moment that this kind of change will be popular. It will require greater moral strength, intellectual depth and breadth, and freedom.
  
• Civilization will divide into two segments that may be distinguished by the levels of freedom and personal responsibility. One segment will deal with increasing problems in society by increasing govt power. The other segment (and don't expect it to be the majority) will deal with problems by becoming better people.
  
• There will be a lot of opposition including new addictions, new recreational drugs, new mind-altering substances. "Escapes" will be popular as people struggle to deal the increasing pace of change and personal demands.

Third: This division will result in a phase change to a completely new level of civilization.

A phase change may be represented by an Ising model. (if I were more evolved I would include the java applet myself, but there you are!) Ising models are used in statistical mechanics to describe the way a phase change acts - like ice changing to water, or water to steam.

Predictions:

• From this we gather that there will be fluctuations in society, that will increase in frequency and intensity as time goes on. The rate of change will increase non-linearly towards infinity.
• Fads, fashions, social movements, attitudes, culture, etc. will be in constant upheaval.
• The Singularity is one aspect of this, but without a change in the spiritual condition of mankind, it will be more trouble, rather than less.
  

What a future we have in store! How will we be ready for it?

Professor's Little Helper

This topic got tossed up in the blogosphere earlier this year, but all it got was a lukewarm discussion that acknowledge the issue, but had no real answers. Nature had an article entitled, Professor's Little Helper that explored the issue of scientists doping.

Granted, it was not anabolic steroids primarily, but various drugs intended to sharpen mental power. It did gain a reply from the director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse. The gist of his argument was that it might be bad, or you might get addicted.

Now, I have no love of the problems substance abuse causes in our world. It would not hurt my feelings to see far tougher laws on alcohol and tobacco. But if we take the directors logic to the extreme, could we eat chocolate? There are chocolate addicts and it is not always good for us. That is not to say anything goes, or should, but we need a better rule for when it is wise.

And it will increasingly become an issue. It is already difficult, and only getting harder, to compete in athletic sports without doping, because it is an advantage. If it confers an advantage, even an ill-considered short-term one, it will become common among people who are serious about competeing.

From the NY Times,

In his book “Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution,” Francis Fukuyama raises the broader issue of performance enhancement: “The original purpose of medicine is to heal the sick, not turn healthy people into gods.” He and others point out that increased use of such drugs could raise the standard of what is considered “normal” performance and widen the gap between those who have access to the medications and those who don’t — and even erode the relationship between struggle and the building of character.

“Even though stimulants and other cognitive enhancers are intended for legitimate clinical use, history predicts that greater availability will lead to an increase in diversion, misuse and abuse,” wrote Dr. Nora Volkow, director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse, and James Swanson of the University of California at Irvine, in a letter to Nature. “Among high school students, abuse of prescription medications is second only to cannabis use.”

It is going to be come an issue, and we would do well to be ready for it. If cosmetic surgery is any indication, it will grow while scorned, until it becomes mainstream. Can we condemn these drugs without condemning all optional plastic surgery?

But does it make a difference? I would call this a side effect -

Jeffrey White, a graduate student in cell biology who has attended several institutions, said that those numbers sounded about right. “You can usually tell who’s using them because they can be angry, testy, hyperfocused, they don’t want to be bothered,” he said.

How much is detrimental, and what defines detrimental? Sure, taking steroids may harm the liver, but it may not. What if taking steroids enables you to put on muscle mass that you would not otherwise be able to do? Contrary to popular opinion, the largest group taking steroids is not athletes, it is WASPs who just don't have time to live in the gym, but want to look like it. Is that necessarily wrong?

What about musicians who use beta-blockers to decrease performance anxiety?

If we need a drug anytime we have a difficult problem, that has crossed the line to being a 'crutch'.

MindHacks, reminds us, that this is not a new issue - whether it was Erdős on amphetamines, or the fact that Francis Crick discovered the structure of DNA while on LSD. Was it worth it? Sometimes it might be.

And just how do we differentiate between enhancing and dealing with natural decline?

For now, I have only tried St. John Wort and Ginkgo, with a melody of other herbs for concentration (depression) and I have to say, it made a difference. Melatonin does wonders for sleep, but also aggravates my arthritis. Exercise (cardio) probably does as much as those herbs, and has been proven to promote neurogenesis.

So for now, I am going to have to stick with "rarely". Because I suspect that there is a time and a place, though I don't think it is as often as others think.