I have been on a serious science fiction kick lately. It was Larry Niven who started it off with "The Integral Trees", but what really got me stuck, was "A Deepness in the Sky", by Vinge Vignor, which was a prequel to "A Fire upon the Deep" though they are actually barely related. I am about halfway through Fire.
One of the themes he continually comes back to is the interaction of superior civilizations and inferior ones. There is much here that would be of interest to both the Transhuman and Singularity movements.
Without revealing too much of the plot (hopefully) in Deepness you have two civilizations of humans, one conquered by the other, stuck in space next to a technologically primitive race of 'spiders'. So with the humans, you have a clash of paradigms; control vs freedom. The control aspect is extensive surveillance far surpassing anything we are capable of at the moment (but we approaching) and a kind of soft mind control they call "Focus". Scary stuff, and not all impossible. The good guys (the Qeng Ho, they call themselves) by contrast, are a very pluralistic free society of interstellar merchants. It was also interesting to see the kind of limits technology made for how long a civilization could last.
In contrast to this, you have the Spiders who are on the verge of a scientific revolution. They have just invented radio and are discovering everything for the first time, and nearly destroy themselves in the process, due in no small part to malicious interference from the bad humans. At the end is a happy one and the Spiders and Humans work together to repair the spaceships damaged at the beginning of the book.
But as interesting all that all is, it is the book that comes after it that is the most interesting for our purposes. The galaxy has different zones where different levels of thought and technology are possible. We, for instance, are in the Slow Zone where the Speed of Light is a limit. In the Beyond, faster than light travel is possible, and technology is advanced to match. And out a little further, you have the Transcend, where technology is infinitely more powerful and makes the inhabitants something like Gods. There is always a steady trickle of civilizations attempting to move from one level to a higher one. Often they are successful, but not uncommonly they are not. And occasionally things go very wrong. This book starts with things going VERY wrong with the loss of several civilizations and worlds. Here, once again, we have "gods" dealing with mortals in the Beyond who can barely comprend the least of their dealings, and these same mortals interacting with a group of pack dog aliens who are only a little more advanced than the bow and arrow. And thus far, the help the humans are giving the dog aliens is exactly the help they don't need. It looks like playing God (using the term loosely) can help a lot, but is fraught with danger too.
It reminds me of Orson Scott Card's harsh words Star Trek's "Prime Directive" where advanced societies are prohibited from assisting lessor societies.
Interestingly, our own government has thought about this, and passed laws about it. You can't make this stuff up, but I will save that for a future post.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
Singularity University - open in June
Singularity University (SU) (www.singularityu.org) will open its doors in June 2009 on the NASA Research Park campus with a nine-week graduate level interdisciplinary curriculum designed to facilitate understanding, collaboration, and innovation across a broad range of carefully chosen scientific and technological disciplines.
The curriculum will be broken out into 10 tracks as follows:
* future studies and forecasting
* networks and computing systems
* biotechnology and bioinformatics
* nanotechnology
* medicine, neuroscience and human enhancement
* AI, robotics, and cognitive computing
* energy and ecological systems
* space and physical sciences
* policy, law and ethics
* finance and entrepreneurship.
source: Next Big Future
The curriculum will be broken out into 10 tracks as follows:
* future studies and forecasting
* networks and computing systems
* biotechnology and bioinformatics
* nanotechnology
* medicine, neuroscience and human enhancement
* AI, robotics, and cognitive computing
* energy and ecological systems
* space and physical sciences
* policy, law and ethics
* finance and entrepreneurship.
source: Next Big Future
The University has been founded by a group of leaders including renowned author and futurist, Dr. Ray Kurzweil, space entrepreneur and chairman of the X PRIZE Foundation, Dr. Peter Diamandis, and Director of NASA’s Ames Research Center, Pete Worden. The list of faculty and advisors includes several distinguished individuals, including nobel laureates and key players from major universities.
Kurzweil will act as chancellor and trustee of the University. He’ll be joined by Diamandis, who will act as vice chancellor and trustee, and Salim Ismail, a former Yahoo executive, who will work as executive director.
source: Singularity Hub
No comments needed - this just speaks for itself - all kinds of awesome. Or it would be if I were there....
Sunday, February 01, 2009
The Meaning of Virtue - online
Virtue is not as well understood as it needs to be. And it desperately need to be understood better. And so I have written a book titled, The Meaning of Virtue.
Consider this:
In North America, 40% of members are single adults.
Of these 18-29, the activity ratio for men to women is 89:100.
While for those over 30, is 19:100.
16% of these women are single parents.
62% of single members 30 and up have never married at all.
And these statistics are several years old! Don't think it has gotten any better.
That is a crisis. And it doesn't take talking to many singles to realize that remaining faithful in today's sex-crazed culture takes a special level of devotion. I don't know if Brigham ever actually said that bachelors over 25 are a menace to society, but it is most likely repeated because there is a more than a bit of truth (as well as humor and notoriety) in that statement.
Whenever singles in the Church discuss sex, and why to keep the law of Chastity, the Standard has been (of course) Scriptures and a most seminal talk by Elder Holland; Souls, Symbols and Sacraments. This talk comes up over and over again, even more than Elder Oaks multiple talks on dating. There is nothing as widely quoted or referenced when singles discuss the actual doctrinal reasons for chastity. It is in a similar vein, that I am sharing a the parts of "The Meaning of Virtue". If I can accomplish a tenth of what that one talk has done, I will have really accomplished something.
It is welcome to be used and copied freely, for strictly non-commercial purposes only.
New chapters will be posted weekly.
The Meaning of Virtue
Consider this:
In North America, 40% of members are single adults.
Of these 18-29, the activity ratio for men to women is 89:100.
While for those over 30, is 19:100.
16% of these women are single parents.
62% of single members 30 and up have never married at all.
And these statistics are several years old! Don't think it has gotten any better.
That is a crisis. And it doesn't take talking to many singles to realize that remaining faithful in today's sex-crazed culture takes a special level of devotion. I don't know if Brigham ever actually said that bachelors over 25 are a menace to society, but it is most likely repeated because there is a more than a bit of truth (as well as humor and notoriety) in that statement.
Whenever singles in the Church discuss sex, and why to keep the law of Chastity, the Standard has been (of course) Scriptures and a most seminal talk by Elder Holland; Souls, Symbols and Sacraments. This talk comes up over and over again, even more than Elder Oaks multiple talks on dating. There is nothing as widely quoted or referenced when singles discuss the actual doctrinal reasons for chastity. It is in a similar vein, that I am sharing a the parts of "The Meaning of Virtue". If I can accomplish a tenth of what that one talk has done, I will have really accomplished something.
It is welcome to be used and copied freely, for strictly non-commercial purposes only.
New chapters will be posted weekly.
The Meaning of Virtue
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
How to win the War on Drugs
I am tired of hearing about border agents shot at by drug runners, or the uprising of drug cartels in Mexico, or of the entire failure of "War on Drugs" in general.
Truth is, as long as there is money for the making, especially in a 3rd world country, like much of the Americas south of the Border, there will be drug trafficing. And no amount of police, agents, or military men are going to stop that. The incentives are just too great.
So instead, I will quote the venerable Scrooge McDuck and say, Work smarter, not harder.
I offer two solutions-
1) Most drug possession offenses should be punishable by heavy fines, not prison if we can avoid it. Otherwise, we tie up crowded prisons, keep people from work, and try to accomplish what we don't have the resources for. Dealers and suppliers should be dealt with more harshly.
2) It's Biology stupid! We have not yet used plant disease - but research is something America is if not uniquely, certainly particularly good at. We need a plant disease (bacteria, virus, fungi, parasite, pest, etc) that targets drug producing plants specifically. Or even targets them proportional to the amount of drug they produce. Imagine killer bees with a taste for coca leaf! Or the tobacco mosaic virus refitted for coca leaf!
Of course, Australia, offers much in the way of lessons for the law of unintended consequences when it comes to messing with ecosystems, but at this point, I think on a risk/benefit analysis, it is more than justified.
Of course, some drugs, notably meth, are not grown, but for the majority that are, we could effectively neuter the drug cartels and hardly leave our labs. We could eliminate 90% of the problem in 5-10 years - and that is not even being overly optimistic.
Truth is, as long as there is money for the making, especially in a 3rd world country, like much of the Americas south of the Border, there will be drug trafficing. And no amount of police, agents, or military men are going to stop that. The incentives are just too great.
So instead, I will quote the venerable Scrooge McDuck and say, Work smarter, not harder.
I offer two solutions-
1) Most drug possession offenses should be punishable by heavy fines, not prison if we can avoid it. Otherwise, we tie up crowded prisons, keep people from work, and try to accomplish what we don't have the resources for. Dealers and suppliers should be dealt with more harshly.
2) It's Biology stupid! We have not yet used plant disease - but research is something America is if not uniquely, certainly particularly good at. We need a plant disease (bacteria, virus, fungi, parasite, pest, etc) that targets drug producing plants specifically. Or even targets them proportional to the amount of drug they produce. Imagine killer bees with a taste for coca leaf! Or the tobacco mosaic virus refitted for coca leaf!
Of course, Australia, offers much in the way of lessons for the law of unintended consequences when it comes to messing with ecosystems, but at this point, I think on a risk/benefit analysis, it is more than justified.
Of course, some drugs, notably meth, are not grown, but for the majority that are, we could effectively neuter the drug cartels and hardly leave our labs. We could eliminate 90% of the problem in 5-10 years - and that is not even being overly optimistic.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Experimental Theology
Experimental Theology is actually a phrase I picked up from reading Phillip Pullman's The Golden Compass, but it expresses something that I think is one of the most important elements and key differences between the fullness of the Gospel and other religions. It is the idea that we can and should gain spiritual knowledge for ourselves. That is not to say that other churches do not preach this - just not with the same vigor and depth.
Faith for us is always based on knowledge of some kind - it is not meant to be completely blind. And to the degree we operating on blind faith, it is our duty to gain a testimony for ourselves. Faith does not exist just for itself, but as a step to learning or accomplishing something.
By no means do I mean physical proofs - like people who get caught up trying to prove the existence of God. While those proofs do occasionally exist (miracles, angels, etc), they are not what actually makes any difference for people. It is not what converts them.
When missionaries teach people the Gospel, invariably the first commitment they ask people to make is to read and pray about the Book of Mormon. Likewise we spend a lot of time in church talking about gaining a greater testimony. This is nothing to take lightly, even for old-timers. Sometimes there are those with "shaken faith syndrome" which happens when we have over estimated our own testimony - easy to do! The first time I delved into the details behind the Book of Abraham, I was confused and disturbed for several days - until i had time to learn and examine the details. This takes effort on our part!
But how can we most truly know something? It does not take watching many murder mysteries to realize that facts and details, can and often do obscure the truth. This is just as true in Science, as it is anything else. Ponder the importance and art of Advertising if you suspect I err!
The Holy Spirit is the spirit of Truth. Truth does not merely come from Christ - he IS the TRUTH and he is the WORD. Strong terms. Truth in it most pure and elemental comes only by the Spirit of God - not just our own opinions!
Further, it is a tenet of our faith that we are saved no faster than we gain knowledge. Likewise, that knowledge and intelligence are among the most fundamental aspects of God. In this sense, doubt is a spiritual pang, like a hunger pang, that tells us we have work to do - that we must learn something for ourselves.
If we are not coming to know the truth for ourselves, then we are not coming to Christ and if we are not helping others to learn the truth for themselves, we are not bringing others to Christ. Truth is available to us. It is not availability that is the great obstruction, but our own willingness to seek after truth, and to accept the truth once we receive it.
He has given us minds, spiritual and physical and he expects us to use both.
In the pre-existence, we operated with complete knowledge and we proved faithful when getting those details was easy. Now in this life, getting all the answers is hard, and sometimes impossible. There are questions to which I only have incomplete answers at best. But in my trials and problems, I have come to know God. In knowing Him, I trust him. Of course, since I work in the hard sciences, unanswered questions are a matter of course. And unanswered questions, like car accidents, are not a matter of 'if', they are a matter of 'when'. If Heavenly Father does not give us the answer in the detail we desire, then we must let our actions hinge on what else he has said.
If I am unsure of the Prophet's words, sometimes what I need most is not a testimony of that exact principle, but a testimony of the divine inspiration and call of Prophet. The same may be said of the Scriptures.
This is why the basics are so emphasized at Church - we need to read the Scriptures, pray, and keep the commandments so that we can have the Spirit teach us the things we need to learn. We need to seek after it... and sometimes even sweat a bit! And most of all, we need to be willing to receive what He tells us.
Faith for us is always based on knowledge of some kind - it is not meant to be completely blind. And to the degree we operating on blind faith, it is our duty to gain a testimony for ourselves. Faith does not exist just for itself, but as a step to learning or accomplishing something.
By no means do I mean physical proofs - like people who get caught up trying to prove the existence of God. While those proofs do occasionally exist (miracles, angels, etc), they are not what actually makes any difference for people. It is not what converts them.
When missionaries teach people the Gospel, invariably the first commitment they ask people to make is to read and pray about the Book of Mormon. Likewise we spend a lot of time in church talking about gaining a greater testimony. This is nothing to take lightly, even for old-timers. Sometimes there are those with "shaken faith syndrome" which happens when we have over estimated our own testimony - easy to do! The first time I delved into the details behind the Book of Abraham, I was confused and disturbed for several days - until i had time to learn and examine the details. This takes effort on our part!
But how can we most truly know something? It does not take watching many murder mysteries to realize that facts and details, can and often do obscure the truth. This is just as true in Science, as it is anything else. Ponder the importance and art of Advertising if you suspect I err!
The Holy Spirit is the spirit of Truth. Truth does not merely come from Christ - he IS the TRUTH and he is the WORD. Strong terms. Truth in it most pure and elemental comes only by the Spirit of God - not just our own opinions!
Further, it is a tenet of our faith that we are saved no faster than we gain knowledge. Likewise, that knowledge and intelligence are among the most fundamental aspects of God. In this sense, doubt is a spiritual pang, like a hunger pang, that tells us we have work to do - that we must learn something for ourselves.
If we are not coming to know the truth for ourselves, then we are not coming to Christ and if we are not helping others to learn the truth for themselves, we are not bringing others to Christ. Truth is available to us. It is not availability that is the great obstruction, but our own willingness to seek after truth, and to accept the truth once we receive it.
He has given us minds, spiritual and physical and he expects us to use both.
In the pre-existence, we operated with complete knowledge and we proved faithful when getting those details was easy. Now in this life, getting all the answers is hard, and sometimes impossible. There are questions to which I only have incomplete answers at best. But in my trials and problems, I have come to know God. In knowing Him, I trust him. Of course, since I work in the hard sciences, unanswered questions are a matter of course. And unanswered questions, like car accidents, are not a matter of 'if', they are a matter of 'when'. If Heavenly Father does not give us the answer in the detail we desire, then we must let our actions hinge on what else he has said.
If I am unsure of the Prophet's words, sometimes what I need most is not a testimony of that exact principle, but a testimony of the divine inspiration and call of Prophet. The same may be said of the Scriptures.
This is why the basics are so emphasized at Church - we need to read the Scriptures, pray, and keep the commandments so that we can have the Spirit teach us the things we need to learn. We need to seek after it... and sometimes even sweat a bit! And most of all, we need to be willing to receive what He tells us.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Cracks in Relativity
As much as we venerate Albert Einstein, for quite a few years now it has been Relativity vs. Quantum Mechanics - and one of them (or both) just has to give. Many have favored rewriting QM because of the sheer strangeness of it. Still, when Old Albert tried to disprove QM's weirdness by experiment, we just ended up with a well proven even stranger experiment - the EPR experiment. I am not going to wax eloquent about the particulars here, but just some things to suggest Relativity will break long before Quantum will.
Possible Abnormality In Fundamental Building Block Of Einstein's Theory Of Relativity
This looks at possible Lorentz violation.... if it works you have really cut Einstein down to size.
Tunneling time measured
Bad news for Relativity: you know that instantaneous and simultaneous that doesn't really exist? Appearently tunneling really does take no time
Yet another suggestion of a preferred handed-ness to the Universe- this time in Galaxy rotation
Don't forget the Pioneer anomaly and other orbital anomalies! Or dark matter and dark energy! Or discrepencies between QM and Gen Relativity about vacuum energy density!
It has been a while since physics has had a real game-changing break-through.... and conditions are ripe!
Possible Abnormality In Fundamental Building Block Of Einstein's Theory Of Relativity
This looks at possible Lorentz violation.... if it works you have really cut Einstein down to size.
Tunneling time measured
Bad news for Relativity: you know that instantaneous and simultaneous that doesn't really exist? Appearently tunneling really does take no time
Yet another suggestion of a preferred handed-ness to the Universe- this time in Galaxy rotation
Don't forget the Pioneer anomaly and other orbital anomalies! Or dark matter and dark energy! Or discrepencies between QM and Gen Relativity about vacuum energy density!
It has been a while since physics has had a real game-changing break-through.... and conditions are ripe!
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
The Collapse of the Scientific Revolution
Short post, but
We rather take it for granted that the Scientific Revolution can progress and continue indefinitely. But should we take that as a given?
How Our Culture Keeps Students Out of Science - Chronicle.com
Good way for us to kill our own scientific advantage
China will build the Controversial Emdrive.
Radical innovation and risk - we could be losing it
Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions (Cold Fusion)
First the DOE reconsiders and admits there is something to it, and now listed in ArXiv - yet still heresy. Popularity rears its ugly head.
How Politics manipulates Science - also from Arxiv regarding the paper: Climate Science: Is it Currently Designed to Answer Questions?
LHC (Large Hadron Collider) like the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) are two big scientific endeavors that move the center of scientific progress to Europe. And while I am happy for Europe, that bodes ill news for US.
We rather take it for granted that the Scientific Revolution can progress and continue indefinitely. But should we take that as a given?
How Our Culture Keeps Students Out of Science - Chronicle.com
Good way for us to kill our own scientific advantage
China will build the Controversial Emdrive.
Radical innovation and risk - we could be losing it
Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions (Cold Fusion)
First the DOE reconsiders and admits there is something to it, and now listed in ArXiv - yet still heresy. Popularity rears its ugly head.
How Politics manipulates Science - also from Arxiv regarding the paper: Climate Science: Is it Currently Designed to Answer Questions?
LHC (Large Hadron Collider) like the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) are two big scientific endeavors that move the center of scientific progress to Europe. And while I am happy for Europe, that bodes ill news for US.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Govt of the Future
Gov. Rod Blagojevich has been accused of "pay to play" politics. That is, of course, bad. But on the other hand, it is any worse than the "friends and family to play" that so often wins in DC? For instance, we have Hillary's Senate seat up for grabs and it is being contested by Caroline Kennedy and Fran Drescher. Who gets most of the air time and most of the endorsements by big names? Kennedy, by a long shot. There are pictures of her as a child in the Whitehouse all over the news. And now I have Sweet Caroline stuck in my head.
In that vein, the BBC has an interesting article about dynasties in Washington DC.
Ok, so what does this all this have to do with Transhumanism? Much of what distinguishes us from the Animal kingdom is culture and community. If we are to consider trans-human, we must also consider trans-culture, because one will be synonoumous with the other. So what of trans-government? What is the role of government in a post-scarcity society?
Our current balance of governmental power will become unstable, and societies will go one of two ways, depending on the people involved. On one hand, we could have a excess of govt power where there is a either a continual arms race between the government and the people, or the government simply limits the development of technology. When I say 'arms', I mean that in the widest possible context - anything powerful, like the internet, for instance. We see this now in China. But, of the two in the long run, the later is far more probable, and would effectly stifle, if not kill the scientific revolution.
The other solution, is for the people to gain greater and greater power. This is usually what we have in mind in a post-scarcity society. Don't truth the govt what they have? Build it yourself! What would a society capable of that be like? Either it would self-destruct, in which case we default to the our first option of Big Brother, (or are just dead) OR we enter a new golden age. That golden age is reachable... but it requires a certain kind of person.
Thus our options are slavery, destruction, or a new golden age. The status quo is not an option.
The next step in human evolution is the Spirit of the Lord.
In that vein, the BBC has an interesting article about dynasties in Washington DC.
Ok, so what does this all this have to do with Transhumanism? Much of what distinguishes us from the Animal kingdom is culture and community. If we are to consider trans-human, we must also consider trans-culture, because one will be synonoumous with the other. So what of trans-government? What is the role of government in a post-scarcity society?
Our current balance of governmental power will become unstable, and societies will go one of two ways, depending on the people involved. On one hand, we could have a excess of govt power where there is a either a continual arms race between the government and the people, or the government simply limits the development of technology. When I say 'arms', I mean that in the widest possible context - anything powerful, like the internet, for instance. We see this now in China. But, of the two in the long run, the later is far more probable, and would effectly stifle, if not kill the scientific revolution.
The other solution, is for the people to gain greater and greater power. This is usually what we have in mind in a post-scarcity society. Don't truth the govt what they have? Build it yourself! What would a society capable of that be like? Either it would self-destruct, in which case we default to the our first option of Big Brother, (or are just dead) OR we enter a new golden age. That golden age is reachable... but it requires a certain kind of person.
Thus our options are slavery, destruction, or a new golden age. The status quo is not an option.
The next step in human evolution is the Spirit of the Lord.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Zombies are the way of the future: You can not kill Open Source
Bill has a problem. Zombies. He just can't stop them.
Everything he knows that is essential for life, they just don't seem to need. And this is a problem because they are cutting into his business.
You see, Bill has been selling software for a few years now, and he is pretty decent at it. Successful enough that he would lose money if he took the time to pick up a $100 bill. Other businesses, that stood in his way, are now either dead or of no account to him, like IBM and OS/2 or Digital Research's DR-DOS. Netscape is dead. But it is the (undead) son of Netscape that keeps him awake at night - Firefox. It is a non-profit venture done by people in their spare time. How can he compete with that? Furthermore, it has the audacity to beat him at his own game. Then there is the cousin of Firefox, Chrome, that could be even scarier in a few years.
Other word processors like WordPerfect were crushed by MS-Word, but you can't make things cheaper than OpenOffice, or much better, worries Bil. All you have to do is download it. Apache webservers are doing far more significant damage to business. Do you know how much I have to pay to develop what you develop for free? And operating systems... here you have a veritable army of zombies, reminicent of something from The Black Cauldron, all under the moniker Linux. "Curse you Linus Torvalds! Curse you and your unslayable open-source! You made the only thing I could not kill!" screams the founder of the Microsoft nation.
And that is not all. There is an entire community of new and inventive projects young and talented programmers are developing in their spare time... gratis! It is like his arch-nemesis, Google, but without an income stream to kill.
Of course, at the moment Bill has all the normal business fortification, but many of his strongest fortifications have been made obsolete by zombies finding a way around it.
It isn't like this is the only group to find people adding to the public commons and making money at it to boot. Wired recently had an excellent article on open Source hardware. Seed magazine had an article on DIY biology. The internet has preceded the death of print newspapers and magazines. DIY video publishing has given pause to the great companies of our day. Even astronomy with its great telescopes, has many of its discoveries, like comets, found by backyard, or home computer hobbyists. All this is just a start to what is out there. And this movement is only growing.
Experts, are like the Tyrannosaurus of yesteryear, are facing a competition they can not fight. Imposing and frightful, there is no beast equal to them. And yet, it is little mammals, mice and men, that are the inheritors and conquerors of of their estate. How can a dinosaur fight a mouse? Not very well. But an army of zombies? There is just no stopping an army of of the undead.
Of course, on the other hand, if open-source and amauter movements are so vibrant and are adding so much value to society, then maybe the real zombies are the institutions and companies of the past. They are the ones sleepwalking into the future.
DIY amateurs are the way of the future.
What can we take away from this? The more that individuals have to work with, and with the ability to add value to public commons, the greater the impact on society. More people with more tools is the future.
Everything he knows that is essential for life, they just don't seem to need. And this is a problem because they are cutting into his business.
You see, Bill has been selling software for a few years now, and he is pretty decent at it. Successful enough that he would lose money if he took the time to pick up a $100 bill. Other businesses, that stood in his way, are now either dead or of no account to him, like IBM and OS/2 or Digital Research's DR-DOS. Netscape is dead. But it is the (undead) son of Netscape that keeps him awake at night - Firefox. It is a non-profit venture done by people in their spare time. How can he compete with that? Furthermore, it has the audacity to beat him at his own game. Then there is the cousin of Firefox, Chrome, that could be even scarier in a few years.
Other word processors like WordPerfect were crushed by MS-Word, but you can't make things cheaper than OpenOffice, or much better, worries Bil. All you have to do is download it. Apache webservers are doing far more significant damage to business. Do you know how much I have to pay to develop what you develop for free? And operating systems... here you have a veritable army of zombies, reminicent of something from The Black Cauldron, all under the moniker Linux. "Curse you Linus Torvalds! Curse you and your unslayable open-source! You made the only thing I could not kill!" screams the founder of the Microsoft nation.
And that is not all. There is an entire community of new and inventive projects young and talented programmers are developing in their spare time... gratis! It is like his arch-nemesis, Google, but without an income stream to kill.
Of course, at the moment Bill has all the normal business fortification, but many of his strongest fortifications have been made obsolete by zombies finding a way around it.
It isn't like this is the only group to find people adding to the public commons and making money at it to boot. Wired recently had an excellent article on open Source hardware. Seed magazine had an article on DIY biology. The internet has preceded the death of print newspapers and magazines. DIY video publishing has given pause to the great companies of our day. Even astronomy with its great telescopes, has many of its discoveries, like comets, found by backyard, or home computer hobbyists. All this is just a start to what is out there. And this movement is only growing.
Experts, are like the Tyrannosaurus of yesteryear, are facing a competition they can not fight. Imposing and frightful, there is no beast equal to them. And yet, it is little mammals, mice and men, that are the inheritors and conquerors of of their estate. How can a dinosaur fight a mouse? Not very well. But an army of zombies? There is just no stopping an army of of the undead.
Of course, on the other hand, if open-source and amauter movements are so vibrant and are adding so much value to society, then maybe the real zombies are the institutions and companies of the past. They are the ones sleepwalking into the future.
DIY amateurs are the way of the future.
What can we take away from this? The more that individuals have to work with, and with the ability to add value to public commons, the greater the impact on society. More people with more tools is the future.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Trans of Culture
So much of what separates us from the Animal Kingdom, is culture and society - the fact we talk and interact, with each other. Animals do this too, but to a far lesser degree. We talk, we write things down, we are always using technology and sharing what we learn. Animals will do some of these things, but the degree and amount are incredibly larger in humankind.
I don't think it is reasonable to expect that our progression to Singularity will be either smooth or uneventful. It will not be without major upheavals or changes in society. Perhaps some could be avoided if we were all better people, but quite a few are as inherent as the change the automobile, or internet brought to society.
That brings up a crucial and important question. If there is a great crash and from the prophecies of the prophets, we do have every reason to expect this sooner or later, what are we going to build in place of our old society? Just a copy of the old one? This will probably just before we actually do return to build the New Jerusalem.
First, I think intellectual property laws need to be scrapped, or at least vastly vastly weakened. So much of the scientific revolution is simply an exponential increase in the rate of information transfer.
Second, ----- well, there is the problem. I am not a student of sociology. There is so much of our world we simply take for granted, and recoil with horror at other cultures that have done things differently.
One hot button topic would be marriage customs. No one wants to change what we do, but it is clear, what we are doing now isn't working that well.
Others might point to environmental aspects we should improve.
Education would certainly be a good place to start, especially grade school education.
I am not saying this because I think it is hip to criticize all things of my own culture, (because there are an awful lot of great things) but what kind of culture will get us through the next 10,000 years of exponential change?
I don't think it is reasonable to expect that our progression to Singularity will be either smooth or uneventful. It will not be without major upheavals or changes in society. Perhaps some could be avoided if we were all better people, but quite a few are as inherent as the change the automobile, or internet brought to society.
That brings up a crucial and important question. If there is a great crash and from the prophecies of the prophets, we do have every reason to expect this sooner or later, what are we going to build in place of our old society? Just a copy of the old one? This will probably just before we actually do return to build the New Jerusalem.
First, I think intellectual property laws need to be scrapped, or at least vastly vastly weakened. So much of the scientific revolution is simply an exponential increase in the rate of information transfer.
Second, ----- well, there is the problem. I am not a student of sociology. There is so much of our world we simply take for granted, and recoil with horror at other cultures that have done things differently.
One hot button topic would be marriage customs. No one wants to change what we do, but it is clear, what we are doing now isn't working that well.
Others might point to environmental aspects we should improve.
Education would certainly be a good place to start, especially grade school education.
I am not saying this because I think it is hip to criticize all things of my own culture, (because there are an awful lot of great things) but what kind of culture will get us through the next 10,000 years of exponential change?
Monday, November 17, 2008
Information stored in Space-Time
So much of the scientific revolution is simply an increase in the speed at which we gain information. And this is not limited to scientific knowledge either. It must have a corresponding increase in spiritual knowledge, or the scientific part will not be sustainable.
In fact the strongest argument against intellectual property laws, is that they stand in the way of this. If the Singularity is to happen, sooner or later, they will have to come down.
Thus the prophecy that the knowledge of the Lord would cover the Earth as the waters cover the sea, is not a mere byproduct, but a necessary condition of both the Singularity and the Millennium.
Which brings up the concept of the Akashic Record. The idea behind this is, that all of history and all of knowledge is recorded in the akasha, or aether, or simply, Space-time continuum. Yes, for all our vaunted Relativity that does away with the aether, we have replaced with the exact same concept, just we call it space-time now.
So is any of this accessable for information? While many of the promoters of the idea are New Age fringe, the idea has completely good merits. Not to say that I have had any success in using it to come to an understanding of the finer points of, say, the BCS theory of superconductivity.
Still Brigham Young made interesting comments about how, as spirits we could visit any time in history. That sounds pretty akashic to me.
Better for us now, are mechanical means for doing the same thing. And really what is a Liahona or Urim and Thummim other than a mechanical means for gaining knowledge?
Joseph said he could see anything with the one he was given. Actually, seer stones played a significant, if forgotten part of early church history. There was of, course, the incident with Hiram Page, yet, he was not counseled to get rid of it, only that what he got from it was false.
If that was not interesting enough, Brigham recorded:
Of course, it should be noted, that Satan can deceive by this means as well - hence Hiram Page. It was noted that it was reliable as preaching - which means to me, that if we want sure knowledge, we need to be perfectly able to listen to and receive confirmation from the Holy Ghost.
Alas, I have neither found nor have been given a seer stone, so this information is primarily theory. Still, according to some, we will have them in the New Jerusalem but I can't find the source for that one, so take it with a grain of salt. But the final immortal state of the earth is to be a great Urim and Thummim. Something like a celestial version of what Douglas Adams said the earth was.
All spirit is matter. In theory, could we build one ourselves? Yes, in theory we could. Our theology suggests that something corresponding to an Akashic field exists. The subject in physics is beyond my ken without a bit of research. Still, information is a vital concept even now in physics.
But don't ask me how to make one, or I would have my own spaceship and lightsaber.
Not that I could get into any trouble with either one of those. (I had a better live action example, but it has been lost in the sands of time. Darned Akashic Field!)
In fact the strongest argument against intellectual property laws, is that they stand in the way of this. If the Singularity is to happen, sooner or later, they will have to come down.
Thus the prophecy that the knowledge of the Lord would cover the Earth as the waters cover the sea, is not a mere byproduct, but a necessary condition of both the Singularity and the Millennium.
Which brings up the concept of the Akashic Record. The idea behind this is, that all of history and all of knowledge is recorded in the akasha, or aether, or simply, Space-time continuum. Yes, for all our vaunted Relativity that does away with the aether, we have replaced with the exact same concept, just we call it space-time now.
So is any of this accessable for information? While many of the promoters of the idea are New Age fringe, the idea has completely good merits. Not to say that I have had any success in using it to come to an understanding of the finer points of, say, the BCS theory of superconductivity.
Still Brigham Young made interesting comments about how, as spirits we could visit any time in history. That sounds pretty akashic to me.
Better for us now, are mechanical means for doing the same thing. And really what is a Liahona or Urim and Thummim other than a mechanical means for gaining knowledge?
Joseph said he could see anything with the one he was given. Actually, seer stones played a significant, if forgotten part of early church history. There was of, course, the incident with Hiram Page, yet, he was not counseled to get rid of it, only that what he got from it was false.
If that was not interesting enough, Brigham recorded:
Dec. 27, 1841: I met with the Twelve at Brother Joseph's. He conversed with us in a familiar manner on a variety of subjects, and explained to us the Urim and Thummim which he found with the plates, called in the Book of Mormon the Interpreters. He said that every man who lived on the earth was entitled to a seer stone, and should have one, but they are kept from them in consequence of their wickedness, and most of those who do find one make an evil use of it; he showed us his seer stone. (Brigham Young, Mill. Star 26:118)If you wish to delve deeper into this esoteric subject, examine an old blog called The Seer.
Of course, it should be noted, that Satan can deceive by this means as well - hence Hiram Page. It was noted that it was reliable as preaching - which means to me, that if we want sure knowledge, we need to be perfectly able to listen to and receive confirmation from the Holy Ghost.
Alas, I have neither found nor have been given a seer stone, so this information is primarily theory. Still, according to some, we will have them in the New Jerusalem but I can't find the source for that one, so take it with a grain of salt. But the final immortal state of the earth is to be a great Urim and Thummim. Something like a celestial version of what Douglas Adams said the earth was.
All spirit is matter. In theory, could we build one ourselves? Yes, in theory we could. Our theology suggests that something corresponding to an Akashic field exists. The subject in physics is beyond my ken without a bit of research. Still, information is a vital concept even now in physics.
But don't ask me how to make one, or I would have my own spaceship and lightsaber.
Not that I could get into any trouble with either one of those. (I had a better live action example, but it has been lost in the sands of time. Darned Akashic Field!)
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Purpose of the Singularity part 5: Just what is it good for?
Ok, back to business... Just what is the Singularity good for? The argument could be made that with regard to actual happiness, less advanced societies do a better job. Perhaps something more like ancient Rome, or pre-Victorian England...
So far in this series, we have looked at the effect of Priesthood keys, how scientific revolutions have come and gone, and why, from a gospel perspective, we are having one right now. If societal attitudes have vitiated scientific revolutions before, then there are some trends amongst us now that bear a closer examination. That, however, will be a future post.
Why do we have computers? Or any other scientific advancement? In short, it is to prepare the earth, and its people for the Second Coming of the Savior, and to accomplish the work we need to accomplish before he comes.
Now, like any good theory, we can make testable predictions- because of what will facilitate genealogy.
It is a good time for computer lovers.
So far in this series, we have looked at the effect of Priesthood keys, how scientific revolutions have come and gone, and why, from a gospel perspective, we are having one right now. If societal attitudes have vitiated scientific revolutions before, then there are some trends amongst us now that bear a closer examination. That, however, will be a future post.
Why do we have computers? Or any other scientific advancement? In short, it is to prepare the earth, and its people for the Second Coming of the Savior, and to accomplish the work we need to accomplish before he comes.
For instance, rise of computers have been tied to genealogy and temple work, which as a Latter-day saint, we feel are part of . The current work in genealogy would be impossible without it.
From the Deseret News - Elder Robert D. Hales of the Quorum of the Twelve gave the devotional address at the beginning of Education Week
In the 1970s, Elder Theodore H. Burton presented the concept of computers being used for family records and research. "He was even bold enough to teach and proclaim that the computer technology was given to man for his use to hasten the day of family history, genealogy and temple work."
His proclamation was met with reservations about the size and expense of computers for personal use and how few Latter-day Saints would be able to afford or operate them. Other concerns were the complexity of how to make them compatible with temple records.
"All seemed to be reasonable reservations for their time," he said, yet "today, we are embarking on a new era of family history computer technology."I have also heard how the 24 temples of the New Jerusalem would be devoted to gaining information about ancestors we now have no record of, but I can find nothing in writing about that.
Now, like any good theory, we can make testable predictions- because of what will facilitate genealogy.
- Computers will continue to increase in memory, both RAM and hard drive as well as speed - Good news for Moore's law.
- Their searching capabilities will be expanded as well. - this is a good omen for quantum computers because search and sort are some of the things they will excel at.
- Communication around the globe will increase beyond even what we have now - good news for the internet
- Contrary to some worries, with very real theoretical concerns behind them, Moore's Law will continue to hold its exponential growth. - Exponential growth is the fastest kind of sustainable growth.
It is a good time for computer lovers.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Path to the Singularity: AI to IA ?
I have long thought that the unlimited optimism that sufficient computer power would automatically make an intelligence to be unfounded. I do think the difference Vernor Vinge draws between Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Amplification (IA). I am doubtful about AI, but IA takes our natural strengths and works with them.
Vernor Vinge's View of the Future - Is Technology That Outthinks Us a Partner or a Master ?
Regardless, I think the final obstacle to the Singularity will be our own intellectual limitations, self-imposed or innate.
Vernor Vinge's View of the Future - Is Technology That Outthinks Us a Partner or a Master ?
Regardless, I think the final obstacle to the Singularity will be our own intellectual limitations, self-imposed or innate.
Monday, September 08, 2008
Ice Age Cometh..... just maybe
Although much neglected, solar activity plays a major role in the earth's climate. We have just ended a very active solar cycle and most people (myself included) were expecting an even more active cycle about to start anytime now. I had read one suggestion that the cycle after this one could start a solar minimum, such as are associated with ice ages. But it appears that this solar cycle is already late in starting, and the Sun is anomalously quiet, with no sunspots at all. This is as quiet as it has been in a hundred years. Now, this cycle may very well start back up and that would not yet surprise me.
It is just that this is looking similar to how a solar minimum starts.... which are correlated with Global Cooling.
This would/could be a thousand times more devastating than Global Warming would ever be.
On the up-side, (small consolation) we can laugh at Al Gore and his camp...
Sun Makes History
Where have all the Sunspots Gone?
and of course,
Space Weather . com
No need to panic yet, but let's just keep our eyes on the Sun.
EDIT: The best place to keep an eye on the next solar cycle starting, as well as discussions of solar and climate physics about solar cycle 24, is SolarCycle24.com. Great site
It is just that this is looking similar to how a solar minimum starts.... which are correlated with Global Cooling.
This would/could be a thousand times more devastating than Global Warming would ever be.
On the up-side, (small consolation) we can laugh at Al Gore and his camp...
Sun Makes History
Where have all the Sunspots Gone?
and of course,
Space Weather . com
No need to panic yet, but let's just keep our eyes on the Sun.
EDIT: The best place to keep an eye on the next solar cycle starting, as well as discussions of solar and climate physics about solar cycle 24, is SolarCycle24.com. Great site
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
The Purpose of the Singularity part 4: Why and what that means
As I discussed earlier, a secular basis alone is insufficient to explain why we have had such a successful scientific revolution, in comparison with previous ages.
However, if we will take time to understand God's purposes, it will help us make concrete predictions about how we will progress towards the Singularity. And the value of any theory is directly proportional to the quality of the predictions it makes (as well as explanatory power).
Just why does God care about it at all?
Firstly, there is no division between temporal and spiritual. What affects us temporally, as the potential to affect us spiritually. Much needs to be done and it will not all be done by the Latter-Day Saints. There is just too much to be accomplished. Prophecies about knowledge and "wonders in heaven and in earth" have been fulfilled in such things as planes and radio, but do not suspect for a moment that that means we will not see even greater advances ourselves. Instead of lifting us up in pride, the incredible technological advancements should indicate to us the magnitude of the work the Lord is preparing us for.
In due time, as the church purifies itself, tech will be important to help Zion both succeed and bloom in every way.
Prediction: Technological progression will continue and will raise the bar as to what is considered necessary as well as intelligent and educated.
Second, the kinds of technology that benefit the Lord's work will see tremendous advances. Considering the magnitude of the Millennial and Pre-Millennial work, we need a lot of help.
Prediction: There will be enough resources to perform the Lord's work. This especially includes time, so expect labor saving devices to become more useful and pervasive. Likewise, Malthusian arguments will continue to be invalid. There will be times of poverty, but there is too much to be done for continual poverty. Consider Brigham Young's prophecy that the Saints would be tried a hundred times more with wealth than they ever were with poverty. Consider the folklore prophecy of Brigham also, about vast reserves of oil in Utah. Regardless, if it is not oil, it will be something else.
Prediction: In a similar vein, there will be enough tools (especially those for communication) to perform the Lord's work. Expect the information revolution to continue its exponential growth, (There is no faster sustainable growth mathematically possible) both in quantity and in network speed. The internet has just gotten started. Tools for travel, (cars, planes, etc) will continue to become not only useful, but more useful and wide spread.
Next time,
However, if we will take time to understand God's purposes, it will help us make concrete predictions about how we will progress towards the Singularity. And the value of any theory is directly proportional to the quality of the predictions it makes (as well as explanatory power).
Just why does God care about it at all?
Firstly, there is no division between temporal and spiritual. What affects us temporally, as the potential to affect us spiritually. Much needs to be done and it will not all be done by the Latter-Day Saints. There is just too much to be accomplished. Prophecies about knowledge and "wonders in heaven and in earth" have been fulfilled in such things as planes and radio, but do not suspect for a moment that that means we will not see even greater advances ourselves. Instead of lifting us up in pride, the incredible technological advancements should indicate to us the magnitude of the work the Lord is preparing us for.
In due time, as the church purifies itself, tech will be important to help Zion both succeed and bloom in every way.
Prediction: Technological progression will continue and will raise the bar as to what is considered necessary as well as intelligent and educated.
Second, the kinds of technology that benefit the Lord's work will see tremendous advances. Considering the magnitude of the Millennial and Pre-Millennial work, we need a lot of help.
Prediction: There will be enough resources to perform the Lord's work. This especially includes time, so expect labor saving devices to become more useful and pervasive. Likewise, Malthusian arguments will continue to be invalid. There will be times of poverty, but there is too much to be done for continual poverty. Consider Brigham Young's prophecy that the Saints would be tried a hundred times more with wealth than they ever were with poverty. Consider the folklore prophecy of Brigham also, about vast reserves of oil in Utah. Regardless, if it is not oil, it will be something else.
Prediction: In a similar vein, there will be enough tools (especially those for communication) to perform the Lord's work. Expect the information revolution to continue its exponential growth, (There is no faster sustainable growth mathematically possible) both in quantity and in network speed. The internet has just gotten started. Tools for travel, (cars, planes, etc) will continue to become not only useful, but more useful and wide spread.
Next time,
- Purpose of computers: Genealogy and temple work and Scriptures
- The many things that could, or previously have, stopped Scientific Revolutions/Singularity.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
The Dearth of Superlatitives
We now take a break from our investigation of the Singularity to discuss an approaching problem that gets very little attention.
The problem is Moore's law, or one of its many variations. For instance, consider computer performance. It doubles every 1.5 years. Or hard drive volume, it increases by 1000 times every 5 years. So right now we have can buy hard drives in the Tera-Byte(Tb) range, but 5 years ago, it was the top of the line was Giga-bytes (Gb), and 10 years ago, we were still in the Mega-byte range(Mb).
The system of SI units gives us prefixes for progressive powers of 1000. That means in 5 years, (baring truly major war, or disaster) we will have Peta-bytes (Pb) hard drives, then in 2018, Exa-byte(Eb), then 2023, Zetta-byte (Zb) and by 2028 Yotta-bytes (Yb). And then.... nothing.
The trouble is that math is a language and the venerable SI system of units, (aka metric), does not have any more pre-fixes, or words if you will, for larger numbers.
Borrowing from Wikipedia, we see that the both in terms of large and small, we are limited.
One suggestion would use all the upper and lower case numbers in the English alphabet, but this becomes problematic as the units these prefixes attach to are also English letters. That would lead to confusion (the first sin of any language). For instance, one proposed extension uses all of the English alphabet, starting with xona-, weka-, and vunda- for progressively higher powers of one thousand. So if we have VA, is that Vunda Amperes? or Volts times Amperes? Ambiguity is unacceptable.
Other approaches might be suggested by the mathematics of very large numbers. But this still struggles with the fact that learning more and more names for larger numbers is just putting the problem off. If you disagree, say 1010000000000 is "ten tremilliamilliamilliatrecenttretriginmilliamilliatrecenttretriginmilliatrecentdotrigintillion" ten times fast.
Another solution would be to designate a new unit, like the Tera-Byte, as the BBoT, for lack of a better name. That would run out slower, lasting 4*5*8 = 160 years. That is good, but not perminent. Further, we would have to designate a new unit for every unit used.
If our growth is exponential, then if we should want a system that will scale in the same way. We have that for Earthquakes, for instance. It is called the Richter scale. Similar scales are used in apparent magnitude for astronomy and the decibel scale for sound. These all use base-10 logarithms, so that each time you increase by 1, the magnitude increases by 10 times. For instance, 5.4 on the richter scale is 10 times what 4.4 is. This system would last virtually forever. But implemenation is everything... and that is going to require more work.
Suggestions?
The problem is Moore's law, or one of its many variations. For instance, consider computer performance. It doubles every 1.5 years. Or hard drive volume, it increases by 1000 times every 5 years. So right now we have can buy hard drives in the Tera-Byte(Tb) range, but 5 years ago, it was the top of the line was Giga-bytes (Gb), and 10 years ago, we were still in the Mega-byte range(Mb).
The system of SI units gives us prefixes for progressive powers of 1000. That means in 5 years, (baring truly major war, or disaster) we will have Peta-bytes (Pb) hard drives, then in 2018, Exa-byte(Eb), then 2023, Zetta-byte (Zb) and by 2028 Yotta-bytes (Yb). And then.... nothing.
The trouble is that math is a language and the venerable SI system of units, (aka metric), does not have any more pre-fixes, or words if you will, for larger numbers.
Borrowing from Wikipedia, we see that the both in terms of large and small, we are limited.
| 1000m | 10n | Prefix | Symbol | Since[1] | Short scale | Long scale | Decimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10008 | 1024 | yotta- | Y | 1991 | Septillion | Quadrillion | 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 |
| 10007 | 1021 | zetta- | Z | 1991 | Sextillion | Trilliard | 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 |
| 10006 | 1018 | exa- | E | 1975 | Quintillion | Trillion | 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 |
| 10005 | 1015 | peta- | P | 1975 | Quadrillion | Billiard | 1 000 000 000 000 000 |
| 10004 | 1012 | tera- | T | 1960 | Trillion | Billion | 1 000 000 000 000 |
| 10003 | 109 | giga- | G | 1960 | Billion | Milliard | 1 000 000 000 |
| 10002 | 106 | mega- | M | 1960 | Million | 1 000 000 | |
| 10001 | 103 | kilo- | k | 1795 | Thousand | 1 000 | |
| 10002/3 | 102 | hecto- | h | 1795 | Hundred | 100 | |
| 10001/3 | 101 | deca- | da | 1795 | Ten | 10 | |
| 10000 | 100 | (none) | (none) | NA | One | 1 | |
| 1000−1/3 | 10−1 | deci- | d | 1795 | Tenth | 0.1 | |
| 1000−2/3 | 10−2 | centi- | c | 1795 | Hundredth | 0.01 | |
| 1000−1 | 10−3 | milli- | m | 1795 | Thousandth | 0.001 | |
| 1000−2 | 10−6 | micro- | ยต | 1960[2] | Millionth | 0.000 001 | |
| 1000−3 | 10−9 | nano- | n | 1960 | Billionth | Milliardth | 0.000 000 001 |
| 1000−4 | 10−12 | pico- | p | 1960 | Trillionth | Billionth | 0.000 000 000 001 |
| 1000−5 | 10−15 | femto- | f | 1964 | Quadrillionth | Billiardth | 0.000 000 000 000 001 |
| 1000−6 | 10−18 | atto- | a | 1964 | Quintillionth | Trillionth | 0.000 000 000 000 000 001 |
| 1000−7 | 10−21 | zepto- | z | 1991 | Sextillionth | Trilliardth | 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 001 |
| 1000−8 | 10−24 | yocto- | y | 1991 | Septillionth | Quadrillionth | 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001 |
One suggestion would use all the upper and lower case numbers in the English alphabet, but this becomes problematic as the units these prefixes attach to are also English letters. That would lead to confusion (the first sin of any language). For instance, one proposed extension uses all of the English alphabet, starting with xona-, weka-, and vunda- for progressively higher powers of one thousand. So if we have VA, is that Vunda Amperes? or Volts times Amperes? Ambiguity is unacceptable.
Other approaches might be suggested by the mathematics of very large numbers. But this still struggles with the fact that learning more and more names for larger numbers is just putting the problem off. If you disagree, say 1010000000000 is "ten tremilliamilliamilliatrecenttretriginmilliamilliatrecenttretriginmilliatrecentdotrigintillion" ten times fast.
Another solution would be to designate a new unit, like the Tera-Byte, as the BBoT, for lack of a better name. That would run out slower, lasting 4*5*8 = 160 years. That is good, but not perminent. Further, we would have to designate a new unit for every unit used.
If our growth is exponential, then if we should want a system that will scale in the same way. We have that for Earthquakes, for instance. It is called the Richter scale. Similar scales are used in apparent magnitude for astronomy and the decibel scale for sound. These all use base-10 logarithms, so that each time you increase by 1, the magnitude increases by 10 times. For instance, 5.4 on the richter scale is 10 times what 4.4 is. This system would last virtually forever. But implemenation is everything... and that is going to require more work.
Suggestions?
Monday, August 25, 2008
The Purpose of the Singularity part 3: Scientific Revolutions
As I suggested in my last post, it has been wondered before why the scientific revolution did not happen in other times and places. Lovers of multiculturalism have, for instance, condemned Thomas Kuhn's Structure of Scientific Revolutions for being Eurocentric, or focused on Western Civilization. The fact is most of what we use in science is Western, with the primary exception being Arabic Sciences, as noted in words like 'algebra' or 'algorithm' or 'azimuth'. And while other civilizations have had tremendous accomplishments, very little of their efforts were a part of the scientific revolution. That is not to suggest they were unintelligent or unaccomplished. Rather we should take it as a warning just how easily we can lose what they lost as well.
Vernor Vinge has an excellent article discussing What If the Singularity Never Happens? He gives us 3 scenarios.
First Scenario - we destroy ourselves - Mutual Assured Destruction - the Suicide of Civilization.
That is why I have stated in posts long gone by that the next necessary step in progress towards the Singularity (or as I love to refer to it, "the Rapture of the Nerds") is moral and spiritual. We are at a point where we are technologically capable of destroying, if not the human race, then most certainly human civilization. Einstein is quoted as having said, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
As our weapons become more and more powerful, this is a greater and greater worry.
Second Possibility, (Golden Age) we actually make it. We clean up our act, repent of our sins, and are ready for the glories the Lord has in mind.
But this picture is a little too simplistic and naively evolutionary. It is a nice idea, but it misses a lot of important complexity.
The third scenario (Wheel of Time) is the the one that best reflects history, though I have great faith and hopes that at least part of the human race will enter the Golden Age scenario this time around. In actual fact, we see that different civilizations have gained and lost scientific understanding through out history.
For instance, for 1400 year, China was more technologically advanced than Europe (Jospeh Needham wrote Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China--Or Did It? - here is a revised version)
Likewise, India was far ahead of the West for a long time. Some thoughts on the Indian half of Needham question by Narasimha explores this puzzle. Here, other scholars address this question, but they don't really come to an answer. Some of their solutions are cultural, but Europe had cultural problems too, like how it dealt with Galileo. Some of the blame is due to invasions and war. But Europe had plenty of that too.
The Arabs had a tremendous opportunity too and flourished for a time, but then lost it all. They are mainly remembered for the few things they introduced into Europe, such as Hindu (so called Arabic) numbers. Here is one slightly bitter record of Islamic scientific history. The main conclusion reached was that there was too little interest and too much insistence on orthodoxy.
Those were similar to the charges against the Indians, and could just as easily be used to accuse us.
Without bringing in theology, I can not answer why this is. But I can say that we can lose what we have just as easily as the Arabs, the Indians, the Chinese, or any other great civilization. It has come and it has gone. We should not take the Scientific Revolution for granted.
Vernor Vinge has an excellent article discussing What If the Singularity Never Happens? He gives us 3 scenarios.
First Scenario - we destroy ourselves - Mutual Assured Destruction - the Suicide of Civilization.
That is why I have stated in posts long gone by that the next necessary step in progress towards the Singularity (or as I love to refer to it, "the Rapture of the Nerds") is moral and spiritual. We are at a point where we are technologically capable of destroying, if not the human race, then most certainly human civilization. Einstein is quoted as having said, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
As our weapons become more and more powerful, this is a greater and greater worry.
Second Possibility, (Golden Age) we actually make it. We clean up our act, repent of our sins, and are ready for the glories the Lord has in mind.
But this picture is a little too simplistic and naively evolutionary. It is a nice idea, but it misses a lot of important complexity.
The third scenario (Wheel of Time) is the the one that best reflects history, though I have great faith and hopes that at least part of the human race will enter the Golden Age scenario this time around. In actual fact, we see that different civilizations have gained and lost scientific understanding through out history.
For instance, for 1400 year, China was more technologically advanced than Europe (Jospeh Needham wrote Why the Scientific Revolution Did Not Take Place in China--Or Did It? - here is a revised version)
Likewise, India was far ahead of the West for a long time. Some thoughts on the Indian half of Needham question by Narasimha explores this puzzle. Here, other scholars address this question, but they don't really come to an answer. Some of their solutions are cultural, but Europe had cultural problems too, like how it dealt with Galileo. Some of the blame is due to invasions and war. But Europe had plenty of that too.
The Arabs had a tremendous opportunity too and flourished for a time, but then lost it all. They are mainly remembered for the few things they introduced into Europe, such as Hindu (so called Arabic) numbers. Here is one slightly bitter record of Islamic scientific history. The main conclusion reached was that there was too little interest and too much insistence on orthodoxy.
Those were similar to the charges against the Indians, and could just as easily be used to accuse us.
Without bringing in theology, I can not answer why this is. But I can say that we can lose what we have just as easily as the Arabs, the Indians, the Chinese, or any other great civilization. It has come and it has gone. We should not take the Scientific Revolution for granted.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
The Purpose of the Singularity part 2: The Key of the Restoration of all things
The Singularity is a period of run-away technological advances. Some people peg it to the creation of a computerized Artificial Intelligence like our own, only computerized, called strong AI. While I am bearish on strong AI, weak AI (like computer programs that are only good at one problem, chess, for instance) will be a significant advance. Ultimately, the reasons for the Singularity happening must be kept in mind, because opportunities for singularity are not inevitable.
Great knowledge has been lost more times in history than we could count. We are only now getting an idea of how the Egyptian pyramids how were built. There are many cases of superior civil engineering technology - Rome and its neighbors, Meso-America, India, China, and so on. We still don't fully understand how Damascus steel was created. Attainments in Medicine have at times been very great, as have attainments in mathematics and astronomy. If we take the Book of Enoch at its word, this is the least of it.
We say, correctly, that the technological advances we are having uniquely in our day and age, are a result of the Gospel being restored. That is true, but we need to be more specific. I wonder if we can say, that it is because of the key of the restoration of all things.
A key consists of power from God to accomplish something. And the truth is scientific advances are revelations who come to those who are prepared scientifically. I could quote Brigham extensively on this, but not today.
The interesting thing about this, is that it was previously held by both Noah (Elias/Gabriel) and Peter, James and John. If I am right then, we could have had the technological marvels we have now, either right after the Flood, or in the days of Rome, except that the Church apostatized. I consider that fascinating, because smarter men than myself have often wondered why the scientific revolution happened when it did, and not earlier. It was certainly not for any lack of intelligence.
What is the purpose of the key of the restoration of all things? Nothing less than building up the kingdom of God. And when men and women have abandoned God, He has withheld the enlightenments they might have otherwise received. Do technological levels directly correlate with righteousness and apostasy? No, not at all, but it will follow it like an errent shadow, with delayed but inexorable effect. And opportunities once lost, may not return for a very long time.
What do the scriptures and prophets tell us about this?
First, there is the well-known and repeated prophecy that someday, we should be as far ahead of the world in Science as we are now in Religion. This prophecy in particular suggests to me that the Singularity will be a LDS phenomena and not the world at large.
Other prophecies closely corrolate the information explosion with the blessings of the Millenium itself.
Great knowledge has been lost more times in history than we could count. We are only now getting an idea of how the Egyptian pyramids how were built. There are many cases of superior civil engineering technology - Rome and its neighbors, Meso-America, India, China, and so on. We still don't fully understand how Damascus steel was created. Attainments in Medicine have at times been very great, as have attainments in mathematics and astronomy. If we take the Book of Enoch at its word, this is the least of it.
We say, correctly, that the technological advances we are having uniquely in our day and age, are a result of the Gospel being restored. That is true, but we need to be more specific. I wonder if we can say, that it is because of the key of the restoration of all things.
A key consists of power from God to accomplish something. And the truth is scientific advances are revelations who come to those who are prepared scientifically. I could quote Brigham extensively on this, but not today.
The interesting thing about this, is that it was previously held by both Noah (Elias/Gabriel) and Peter, James and John. If I am right then, we could have had the technological marvels we have now, either right after the Flood, or in the days of Rome, except that the Church apostatized. I consider that fascinating, because smarter men than myself have often wondered why the scientific revolution happened when it did, and not earlier. It was certainly not for any lack of intelligence.
What is the purpose of the key of the restoration of all things? Nothing less than building up the kingdom of God. And when men and women have abandoned God, He has withheld the enlightenments they might have otherwise received. Do technological levels directly correlate with righteousness and apostasy? No, not at all, but it will follow it like an errent shadow, with delayed but inexorable effect. And opportunities once lost, may not return for a very long time.
What do the scriptures and prophets tell us about this?
First, there is the well-known and repeated prophecy that someday, we should be as far ahead of the world in Science as we are now in Religion. This prophecy in particular suggests to me that the Singularity will be a LDS phenomena and not the world at large.
Other prophecies closely corrolate the information explosion with the blessings of the Millenium itself.
A time to come when nothing shall be withheld....or
And for what purpose is all of this? It is to build up Zion - that it might be perfect in knowledge, both secular and spiritual. Both kinds of knowledge are necessary.
...for it is necessary in the ushering in of the dispensation of the fulness of times, which dispensation is now beginning to usher in, that a whole and complete and perfect union, and welding together of dispensations, and keys, and powers, and glories should take place, and be revealed from the days of Adam even to the present time. And not only this, but those things which never have been revealed from the foundation of the world, but have been kept hid from the wise and prudent, shall be revealed unto babes and sucklings in this, the dispensation of the fulness of times.
And what does that mean for us? It means that God expects us to get to work and learn. He has given us minds and opportunities and if we do not, we will be found wanting. God can not bless us if we do not make use of the gift He has given.God does not violate the agency he has given to man; wherefore let this be in the mouth of every Saint, "The Lord shall have perfect dominion in my heart and affections;" then he will begin to reign in the midst of the people; but he cannot do so now. When we have faith to understand that he must dictate, and that we must be perfectly submissive to him, then we shall begin to rapidly collect the intelligence that is bestowed upon the nations, for all this intelligence belongs to Zion. All the knowledge, wisdom, power, and glory that have been bestowed upon the nations of the earth, from the days of Adam till now, must be gathered home to Zion. The wicked will become more and more weak and ignorant as they increase in wickedness. See the trifling, childish foolishness now among the nations of the earth.
Journal of Discourses Vol. 8, p. 279
Elsewhere Brigham said,Were I residing in a gathering-place where I knew I could remain for two years, and had fifty thousand dollars to spare, I would expend it in the best improvements I could, and labour to improve until the last day of my remaining. The Lord is gathering his people, and this is a city for the Saints. A great many here are satisfied with a log hut. Some act as though they expected to be driven, and others say—"We will soon go back to the centre Stake of Zion, and this house will answer my purpose till then." Let every mechanic and every scientific man of all classes and occupations, and every woman, improve to the best of their ability, faithfully living their religion, and we shall be none too well qualified to build up Zion when that time arrives. I never saw a stone-mason who thoroughly understood his trade. We have not a quarryman who fully understands getting out rock for the Temple walls. Then how, amid such ignorance, are you going to properly lay the foundation of the New Jerusalem—the Zion of our God? What do you know about building the great Temple that is yet to be built, upon which the glory of God will rest by day and by night? Where is the man that knows how to lay the first rock in that Temple, or to get out the first stick of timber for it? Where is the woman that knows how to make a single part of its interior decorations? That knowledge is not now here; and unless you wisely improve upon your privileges day by day, you will not be prepared, when called upon, to engage to the best advantage in building up Zion.
No nation possesses any wisdom but what it has received from the same God that we worship. He is the best mechanic and the most scientific personage that we have any knowledge of. There is not a principle in astronomy, known by men of science, but what has been revealed from heaven. All true knowledge among men, in relation to agriculture, the arts, science, commerce, and every avocation in life, has been given from our Father in heaven to his children, whether they acknowledge and obey him or not.
Journal of Discourses Vol. 8, p. 278-279
It is mortifying that the children of this world should know more about these things than the children of light. We know more about the kingdom of God. Take these young men, sixteen or eighteen years old, or these old men, or some who have just come into the Church, and let them go into the world, and, with regard to the kingdom of God, they can teach kings and queens, statesmen and philosophers, for they are ignorant of these things, but in things pertaining to this life the lack of knowledge manifested by us as a people is disgraceful. Your knowledge should be as much more than that of the children of the world, with regard to the things of the world, as it is with regard to the things of the kingdom of God. JD 10:293
We must become ready for what the Lord has planned, spiritually and intellectually.
Put forth your ability to learn as fast as you can, and gather all the strength of mind and principle of faith you possibly can, and then distribute your knowledge to the people. Give them virtue, knowledge, principle, truth, godliness. The Lord is gathering those principles home to Zion from among the wicked nations, and is leaving them in darkness. What a pity it would be for the Lord to gather out all the good, and we be found unworthy of it. We shall be worthy of it, if we live for it; and may the Lord help us so to do! JD 8:146
It is worth repeating - if we do not become ready, it can be given to other nations, without any of the holy prophecies being invalidated in the least.
I have no doubt with regard to the good work of the Lord, referred to by those who have spoken, and it will continue among the nations of the earth. The Lord will bring out the results to his own honour and glory; but are we ready?
The Lord has bestowed great knowledge and wisdom upon the inhabitants of the earth—much truth and knowledge in the arts and sciences. Those nations that deny their God and Saviour will have those principles of intelligence taken from them. Are the Latter-day Saints prepared to receive them, enjoy them, or will those principles have to go to some other kingdom? There is great wisdom in the world; their knowledge in mechanism and the exact sciences is very great. This wisdom will be taken from the wicked. Who will receive it? Is there a people upon the earth prepared to receive this knowledge and this wisdom? There should be. Is it reasonable to suppose that the wisdom God has bestowed upon the nations of the earth should continue upon it? Or should it be taken from the inhabitants of the earth and carried back from whence it came? My faith and my desire are that there should be a people upon the earth prepared to receive this wisdom. It should not be so forfeited as to be taken from the earth, for I question whether it would return again. There should be a people prepared to improve upon their knowledge and wisdom, for all knowledge and wisdom come from God. All true intelligence is the gift of God. He is the true fountain of all knowledge and wisdom. JD 8, p. 319
Thursday, August 21, 2008
The Purpose of the Singularity part 1
We can not talk comprehensively about technology, and the tremendous change in technology that the Singularity will bring, without talking about God, and His purposes.
We have our work cut out for us.
This is not only true from a theological perspective, but also bluntly from a scientific perspective. It has long been pondered why the scientific revolution did not happen in so many other periods of history. The Egyptians were plenty smart, and I don't just mean the pyramids. The Greeks had a level of mathematical and scientific understanding that we only matched in the last hundred years. The Romans were eminently capable... why did it not happen for them?
And why has it happened to us?
I am going to explore the implications this perspective has both spiritually, and technologically in this set of posts.(it was originally going to be one post, but it ballooned fantastically)
- Scientific Revolution: Why not earlier? (technologically reason)
- Scientific Revolution: Why not earlier? (theological reason)
- For what purpose is the Scientific Revolution?
- What does this imply about the Nature of the Singularity and future of the Scientific Revolution?
- What do the Scriptures have to say about the Singularity?
I have no doubt with regard to the good work of the Lord, referred to by those who have spoken, and it will continue among the nations of the earth. The Lord will bring out the results to his own honour and glory; but are we ready?
The Lord has bestowed great knowledge and wisdom upon the inhabitants of the earth—much truth and knowledge in the arts and sciences. Those nations that deny their God and Saviour will have those principles of intelligence taken from them. Are the Latter-day Saints prepared to receive them, enjoy them, or will those principles have to go to some other kingdom? There is great wisdom in the world; their knowledge in mechanism and the exact sciences is very great. This wisdom will be taken from the wicked. Who will receive it? Is there a people upon the earth prepared to receive this knowledge and this wisdom? There should be. Is it reasonable to suppose that the wisdom God has bestowed upon the nations of the earth should continue upon it? Or should it be taken from the inhabitants of the earth and carried back from whence it came? My faith and my desire are that there should be a people upon the earth prepared to receive this wisdom. It should not be so forfeited as to be taken from the earth, for I question whether it would return again. There should be a people prepared to improve upon their knowledge and wisdom, for all knowledge and wisdom come from God. All true intelligence is the gift of God. He is the true fountain of all knowledge and wisdom.
Journal of Discourses Vol. 8, p. 319
We have our work cut out for us.
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